So far this year, President Trump’s tariffs have really pushed global stocks forward. For a while, they even took some of the spotlight away from the S&P 500 in the worldwide markets.
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·International stock markets are looking like they might do better than the U.S. S&P 500 this year. If that happens, it'll be the first time since 2022—and the first time during a rising market since 2009.
·So far in 2025, the MSCI All-Country World Index outside the U.S. has gone up 18%, which is a lot more than the S&P 500’s 7.8% gain. Looking at different countries, the stock performances are pretty clear: Mexico’s main index is up 18%, Canada’s 12%, Germany 21%, Spain 26%, Brazil 14%, and the UK 11%.
·This is quite different from the big growth U.S. stocks saw in recent years. Back then, the U.S. stock market was riding high thanks to tech giants and new AI ideas, while other parts of the world weren't doing as well. Because of that, stocks outside the U.S. looked pretty cheap compared to American ones.
·Craig Basinger, who’s the main strategist at Purpose Investments, said that sometimes the biggest opportunities come from areas that need fixing. He pointed out that the gap in value between U.S. stocks and international markets has never been wider. Right now, most investors are heavily invested in U.S. stocks and not enough in other markets. But this is starting to change this year. With Trump’s new tariffs starting this month, and countries like Canada, Europe, and Japan pushing ahead with reforms and trying to grow their economies, this shift might pick up speed.
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·A June survey of fund managers by Bank of America Securities found that 54% of them expect international stocks to do the best over the next five years. Only 23% believe U.S. stocks will outperform. However, some experts have warned that trouble in the U.S. market might spread to other parts of the world.
·Emily Roland and Matthew Miskin, the main investment strategists at Manulife John Hancock, recently told clients that it's best not to buy low-quality, highly cyclical international stocks right now.
·"Historically, whenever the U.S. hits a recession, it tends to pull the rest of the world down too," they wrote in the report. While they’re pretty optimistic about international stocks, Basinger pointed out that moving money from U.S. stocks to international markets probably won’t happen overnight. "Right now, people are still holding way too many U.S. stocks," he said.
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